The Role of Statistics in Identifying Breakout Players in the MLB

18 July 2025

Baseball has always been a game of numbers. Whether it's batting averages, on-base percentages, or WAR (Wins Above Replacement), statistics have long been the foundation for evaluating player performance. But in today's data-driven era, analytics is more powerful than ever.

Every season, we witness young players rise from obscurity and make a name for themselves in Major League Baseball (MLB). But how do teams and analysts predict which players will break out? It all comes down to numbers—advanced metrics, historical trends, and hidden stats that paint the full picture.

In this article, we’ll dive into how statistics help identify MLB’s next big stars and why smart teams rely on analytics to stay ahead of the game.

The Science Behind Breakout Players

A breakout player isn’t just someone who has a good season—it’s a player who exceeds expectations and establishes themselves as a key contributor. Think of guys like Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatís Jr., or Julio Rodríguez. These stars didn’t come out of nowhere; their potential was already visible in the numbers before they reached stardom.

Modern baseball analytics allow scouts, front offices, and even fans to analyze deep data sets that reveal trends and patterns. By digging into specific stats, we can spot players on the verge of a breakout.

Key Statistics for Identifying Breakout Stars

1. Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate

One of the best indicators of a hitter’s potential is how hard they hit the ball. Exit velocity (how fast the ball comes off the bat) and hard-hit rate (percentage of balls hit at 95+ mph) are key metrics that measure raw power.

- A player consistently hitting the ball hard, even if they don’t have flashy numbers yet, is often an indicator of future success.
- Players like Aaron Judge and Yordan Álvarez showed elite exit velocities before becoming All-Stars.

2. Barrel Percentage

A "barrel" in baseball refers to hitting the ball with the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle. Higher barrel rates suggest a player is consistently making strong contact—often a sign of power and production waiting to explode.

- If a young hitter has a high barrel percentage but hasn't seen great results yet, it may be a sign that a breakout season is coming.

3. Strikeout and Walk Rates (K% and BB%)

Plate discipline is crucial for success. A player with a high walk rate (BB%) and a lower strikeout rate (K%) tends to have better long-term success than free-swingers who chase bad pitches.

- Players who improve their walk-to-strikeout ratio often take a leap forward in production.
- Juan Soto, for example, has one of the best walk rates in MLB, contributing to his elite performance.

4. Expected Stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA)

Traditional batting averages and slugging percentages can sometimes be misleading due to luck or defensive positioning. That’s where expected stats (expected batting average, expected slugging, and expected weighted on-base average) come in.

- These numbers strip away luck and tell us how a player should be performing based on the quality of their contact.
- If a player’s expected stats are significantly better than their actual stats, a breakout could be right around the corner.

5. Sprint Speed and Baserunning Metrics

Speed can turn singles into doubles and routine ground balls into infield hits. MLB’s Statcast system tracks every player's sprint speed, helping teams identify potential base stealers and athletic defenders.

- Players who rank high in sprint speed often become dynamic threats both offensively and defensively.

6. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)

BABIP can help us determine if a player has been unlucky or if they’re truly struggling. A low BABIP with solid underlying metrics could mean a hitter is simply a few lucky breaks away from success.

- If a hitter is making great contact but has a low BABIP, it's often a sign that their numbers will improve soon.

Success Stories: Breakout Players Identified by Analytics

Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves)

Before becoming a household name, Matt Olson was quietly putting up excellent exit velocity and barrel percentages. Even when his surface stats weren’t eye-popping, the data suggested he had elite power potential—something he eventually realized with back-to-back 30+ home run seasons.

Luis Arráez (Miami Marlins)

Arráez doesn’t have elite power numbers, but his extremely low strikeout rate and high contact percentage made it clear he was on track to becoming a batting champion. His keen eye at the plate allowed him to maximize his potential, leading to a breakout season.

Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays)

On the pitching side, spin rate and velocity are key breakout indicators. McClanahan’s high fastball velocity and elite whiff rates predicted his emergence as one of the American League’s top pitchers.

How Teams Use Stats to Stay Ahead

MLB front offices rely on advanced metrics to project player growth and make key decisions. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Dodgers have built sustainable success by identifying undervalued talents using statistical analysis.

Analytics-driven teams:
- Find diamonds in the rough by focusing on hidden analytics.
- Help struggling players make small adjustments for big gains.
- Develop training programs based on biomechanical data and statistical tendencies.

For example, the Rays frequently acquire players with strong underlying stats but poor surface numbers. With the right coaching and adjustments, these players often turn into valuable contributors.

Why Fans Should Pay Attention to Stats

Even if you’re just a casual baseball fan, understanding stats can make watching the game even more exciting. Imagine spotting a young player making hard contact and thinking, This guy is going to break out soon!—only for that prediction to become reality.

- Fantasy baseball players can gain a massive edge by looking beyond basic stats.
- Spotting potential breakout stars early can help fans appreciate the game on a deeper level.

Final Thoughts

Statistics are the hidden blueprint behind every breakout season in MLB. From exit velocity to expected stats, these advanced numbers tell us more than the traditional eye test ever could.

While raw talent and work ethic play a crucial role, analytics help uncover who’s primed to take that next big step. Whether you're a scout, a fantasy baseball enthusiast, or just an avid fan, keeping an eye on these key metrics can help you predict the next MLB superstar before everyone else does.

So the next time you're watching a young player crushing baseballs with high exit velocity or posting an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio, take note—you might just be witnessing the rise of baseball's next big star.